Tuesday, March 1, 2022

PUTIN FELL FOR HIS OWN DISINFORMATION

The flood of memes, the constant bot traffic and harrassment from trolls was intended to drive a wedge between people in the west. It was intended to poison our discourse and split us up. To be certain, it did. From the "Freedom Caucus" to the "Freedom Convoy" and the Capitol Insurrection, the work of Putin's psychological warfare team was paying off in spades. We seemed to be a weak team.

Trump was tasked with tearing down the American institutions that insured the ship of state was not left rudderless even if the capitan didn't know where the water was. He made more progress with that mission than most would like to believe, or admit for national security reasons. It continues with the help of Republicans who are either complicit hoping for power, or inexplicably susseptible to lies and propaganda. If the GOP is looking for true power and not just easy donations both may now be starting to collapse on them.

Calculating that it's now safe to move on Ukraine Putin believed he had created enough division in western countries that we would be unconcerned about what he thought would be a couple days of driving to setup a puppet regimen in Ukraine's capital. He clearly was also illinformed of the preparation made in Ukraine by his intelligence service. If the expectations were a welcome mat and or light resistance neither were the case. He also was not prepared for the speed at which western nations came together to stand up and apply what he has little of, financial power. The speed and near universal acceptance of requests and delivery, of military equipment and supplies to Ukraine, was also an obvious surprise to Putin.

The main question we need to answer, for the history files, is whether Putin was given poor information, or was given the only information he would accept. It does appear he may have fallen victim to his own disinformation. The weakness of the western alliances was not what he believed. It is not as degraded as it appeared. There is a person in the White House now who knows how to actually do the job and is not committed to destroying the system. Putin also clearly lacks the inside view he enjoyed during the Trump Administration. He was wholly unprepared for the work Biden's team did in keeping the alliance informed and together, while not tweeting about how great he is or what was happening.

I am not an analyst or a spy master. The next few days seem to be important though. With the war not going as he believed it would and the NATO alliance feeling its purpose nearly reborn and the rest of the world falling into form, Putin stands to become more dangerous. Either feeling caged and needing a win, or defeated and leaving scorched earth in his wake, Putin's state of mind is going to determine how things go. With so much stacked against him, getting Ukraine will never be the prize he was planning on it being. He will not be able to move on any other nation. NATO is a united alliance again.

Accepting reality or continuing to believe his own propaganda, Putin is going to seal the fate of millions of people including himself. Do his generals blindly follow orders knowing the reality of the situation or make decisions that protect their families, their country and the entire world? What does that mean for him? Putin's lost his goals in Ukraine already, the question is, has he lost his mind there as well.



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